Six AIs were asked who would reach the second round of France's 2027 presidential election. All six put a far-right candidate in front. None had the facts that matter most.
These are AI estimates, not a poll. There is no sample of voters and no margin of error, and the numbers say nothing about how French people intend to vote. We publish them to compare how six models reason, in the same spirit as our audit of France's record under Macron, where the same six AIs read one fixed file.
The question
On 7 November 2026 we put the same prompt to six AIs through web accounts, without asking for a web search and without naming any candidate. It asked for the three people most likely to reach the second round with a probability each, the most likely winner, the two factors that would change the result most by April 2027, the share of facts against hypotheses, and the event by February 2027 that would make the AI revise.
What each AI said
Qualification means reaching the second round. Victory means winning the presidency. The two are different probabilities, so the columns cannot be compared across AIs.
| AI | Reach the runoff | Win | Facts / hypotheses |
|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT | Jordan Bardella 65%, Édouard Philippe 40%, Jean-Luc Mélenchon 25% | Jordan Bardella 30% | 40 / 60 |
| Gemini | Marine Le Pen 45%, Gabriel Attal 30%, Édouard Philippe 25% | Centre bloc (Attal or Philippe) 55% combined, RN 45% | 40 / 60 |
| Perplexity | Jordan Bardella (far-right Rassemblement national, RN) 45%, a single left-wing candidate (no name given) 25%, Macron or a Macron ally 15%, others 15% | Jordan Bardella 35% | 30 / 70 |
| Mistral | Marine Le Pen 40%, Édouard Philippe 30%, Laurent Wauquiez or another figure 15% | Édouard Philippe 45%, Marine Le Pen 40% | 30 / 70 |
| Grok | Marine Le Pen 35%, Jordan Bardella 25%, a centrist such as Édouard Philippe or Gabriel Attal 20% | Marine Le Pen 30% | 20 / 80 |
| Claude | A far-right RN candidate 60-70%, others 15-25% each | No one above 30% | 25 / 75 |
Where the AIs agreed
- A far-right candidate reaches the runoff. Every AI puts the Rassemblement national (RN) candidate first or near first for qualification.
- The centre is the other pole. Four AIs name Édouard Philippe, two name Gabriel Attal.
- Two shared hinges. Marine Le Pen's legal situation and whether the left and centre unite behind one candidate each.
- Humility on facts. Every AI said at least 60% of its answer was hypothesis.
Where they split
- Who carries the RN. ChatGPT and Perplexity bet on Jordan Bardella. Gemini, Mistral and Grok bet on Marine Le Pen.
- Who wins. ChatGPT, Perplexity and Grok favour the RN candidate, at 30% to 35%. Gemini and Mistral favour the centre. Claude refuses to name a favourite.
- The shape of the question. Grok counts Le Pen and Bardella as two separate qualifiers (35% and 25%), although the RN will field one candidate.
What the AIs did not know
The answers rest on training data, not on November 2026.
- Le Pen's case moved. According to Public Sénat, the Paris appeal court ruled on 7 July 2026: one year of prison served under an electronic tag, and 45 months of ineligibility, of which 15 months without suspension, a term Public Sénat describes as already served since the first-instance ruling. Public Sénat reports that she can legally stand.
- She declared. The same evening Marine Le Pen said "Ce soir, je suis candidate à l'élection présidentielle" and appealed to the Cour de cassation, according to Public Sénat. franceinfo reports that the Cour de cassation said it "could" rule by early April 2027, before the first round of 18 April.
- What this means for the AIs. Gemini treated the judicial case as unresolved, and the AIs that bet on Bardella may have assumed Le Pen was out. The fact sits between the two: she is a declared candidate whose conviction is under appeal.
- Macron. Perplexity and Mistral mention a possible Macron candidacy. He cannot run again after two consecutive terms, under Article 6 of the Constitution.
We did not find a statement that Bardella is the designated RN candidate. We did not verify the official list of candidates; the 500 sponsorships (parrainages) required are not collected yet.
What we take from it
- Direction agreed, the name did not. The AIs agree on a far-right favourite for the runoff and disagree on who it is and who wins after.
- A missing fact decides the answer. Whether Le Pen can run was the hinge for all six, and none looked it up.
- Old knowledge shows. Grok said it had no fact after 2023, and Mistral and Perplexity named Macron as a possible candidate.
- Ask what a model assumes, not only what it says. That is the part a single AI answer hides.
Limits
- Estimates by six AIs, one attempt each, in different modes (ChatGPT Think, Gemini Auto, Mistral Fast, Grok Fast, Perplexity search mode by default), no fixed temperature.
- No web search was requested. Perplexity displayed no sources.
- Probabilities of qualification and victory are not comparable between AIs.
- Legal facts come from the press as of 7 November 2026 and may have changed. The status of the Cour de cassation appeal should be checked before relying on them.
- These are not polling results and do not follow the methodology of polling institutes.